Coronavirus pandemic | India may see 1.3 million COVID-19 cases by mid-May: Report

Coronavirus pandemic | India may see 1.3 million COVID-19 cases by mid-May: Report

Cases of confirmed coronavirus cases in India might rise from 97,000 to 1.3 million by the middle of the May, given the country’s demographics - which raises the possibility of the country being unable to avoid widespread deaths if its weak healthcare system is overwhelmed by the outbreak, said a Hindustan Times’ report, citing a statistical analysis of current trends.

The projection was mentioned in a report, “Predictions and role of interventions for Covid-19 outbreak in India”. It was created by a team including 13 academics from three American universities and one from the Delhi School of Economics and was based on COVID-19 cases reported till March 22.

Bhramar Mukherjee, one of the authors of the report, told the publication that they estimated that between 97,000 and 1.3 million people might be infected across India by May 15.

However, the trend will depend on India’s interventions to stop the coronavirus from spreading further in the country, as per the researchers.

All the susceptibility factors that have been identified for people to be at higher risk for hospitalisations are prevalent in India. Large scale testing to identify the spread of the disease can be of help, said Mukherjee, the chair of biostatistics at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

The report further stated the capacity of India’s healthcare facilities to handle the pandemic. India has 0.7 hospital beds for every 100,000 people, said the report and underscored the need for the government to immediately ramp up efforts such as building dedicated new hospitals as China did in Wuhan.

Also read | Coronavirus pandemic: How safe is your child?

The researchers further talked about the speculation that the following summer months could help stem the disease’s spread in the report.

Every flu has two seasons -- early in the spring and a return in the fall, said Mukherjee. “Even if it dies down in summer, it will likely come back, so we have to be prepared at least for a couple of years till we get herd immunity or a vaccine,” she added.

India has 492 reported confirmed coronavirus cases and nine deaths so far.

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